Trade setup for April 6: GIFT NIFTY indicates a flat start, can it bounce back? Check details

Indian benchmark indices are expected to open flat, owing to mixed global cues. The GIFT NIFTY futures traded flat with no major swings on either side on Monday morning amid mixed global cues.

Crude oil prices surged past the $110 per barrel mark as escalations continue in the Middle East conflict. OPEC+, the apex body of oil-producing countries, agreed to increase the oil output once the Strait reopens.

Asian markets opened green across the board as investors reassessed the risks of the ongoing conflict. The Japanese, Korean and Hong Kong markets rallied over 1% despite the sharp rally in crude oil prices.

The US stock futures fell after President Trump gave a fresh warning to Iran. President Trump threatened to hit power plants and bridges if Iran doesn’t accept the deal before the 48-hour ultimatum ends.

🔎 What matters today

• Implied trading range: 22,100 to 23,300
• OI resistance: 23,000
• OI support: 22,000
• Structure: Rangebound
• Intraday tone: Sideways to bearish

Open interest - NIFTY50

Positioning

💰 Institutional intelligence

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have sustained their bearish approach and have offloaded equities worth ₹18,262 in the first two days of April.

In index futures, their net positioning remains bearish with the long-to-short ratio standing at 17:83. This means nearly 83% of the contracts are positioned towards short contracts, with net open interest standing at -2.68 lakh contracts.

Trend summary: 1-hour chart

Price: Above 20 EMA and below 50 EMA RSI: 46 (Slightly bullish) ADX: 20 (Non-trending)

On the long-term weekly charts, the index made a doji candlestick pattern, indicating indecisiveness on the long-term direction. On the short-term hourly charts, the index closed above the 20 EMA levels, suggesting sustained momentum with resistance of 50 EMA levels at 22,800.

If–then playbook

A sustained close above the immediate resistance zone will be the first sign of the index stabilising around the 22,000 zone. However, the crucial resistance is around 23,850. In the range of 23,000 and 23,850, the market may turn rangebound.

This range coincides with last week’s low as well as the current week’s low, making it a key support area. As long as the index holds above this zone on a closing basis, the short-term trend is likely to remain positive. A decisive close below it, however, could signal a shift in momentum.

Source: Upstox and NSE.