JioBlackRock MF CIO: Stock market recovery likely after March 2026

At the end of Monday's close (September 15, 2025), the S&P BSE SENSEX is down 1.45% in the past 12 months, while the NSE's NIFTY50 index has slipped 1.24%. However, on a year-to-date (YTD) basis, the SENSEX has gained 4.18%, and the 50-share index of the NSE has rallied 5.59% during the period.

One of the key triggers for the next leg of the rally is expected to be a breakthrough between India and the US on trade tariffs.

Currently, India is facing a 50% tariff on its exports to the US.

Amid the current market scenario, JioBlackRock Mutual Fund chief investment officer (CIO) Rishi Kohli said on Monday that the domestic stock market may continue to see some volatility over the next one or two quarters, but post-March, an improvement at a broader level is expected.

Kohli stressed that the projections are "based on fundamental, macro cycles" and expressed confidence that stability will return as earnings and broader data start aligning.

Jio BlackRock Mutual Fund is a 50:50 joint venture between Jio Financial Services and $12 trillion global asset manager BlackRock.

Talking to PTI, Kohli noted that the market has endured a "lot of pain” over the past year, adding that "the worst of the price pain seems to have happened", though "some more pain and volatility may be there".

This anticipated turbulence, the CIO explained, stems from "a mix of fundamental, macro and geopolitics", where "the collective data was not pointing to a clear direction".

This lack of clarity is because "some data is good, some is not good, and some has just started changing for the better," Kohli said.

According to Kohli, it "will take a couple of quarters for the various data to align and start pointing in a similar direction, which is when the market moves much more smoothly".

Beyond macro factors, Kohli said, "Earnings have seen some volatility on average across the entire spectrum of the listed markets."

However, this is expected to "start stabilising and improving after a quarter or two," which "should hopefully help give the tailwind to the Indian equity markets to resume their long-term upward trend," Kohli added.

Recently, Fitch Ratings raised India's GDP growth forecast to 6.9% for the current fiscal year (FY26), from 6.5% earlier, citing strong June quarter growth and domestic consumption-led demand.

Fitch is the first global rating agency to have upped India's GDP growth estimates for the current fiscal year after the string of downward revisions by various agencies earlier this year due to trade and tariff uncertainties.

In its Global Economic Outlook (GEO)-September, Fitch said the pace of economic activity accelerated sharply between the March and June quarters of the current fiscal year.