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Expiry trade setup: Can NIFTY50 hold 25,000 support on Monday? Check details

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By Rohan Takalkar

2 min read | Updated on March 02, 2026, 07:59 IST

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SUMMARY

The NIFTY50 closed below the 200 EMA levels on Friday, indicating bearish sentiment riding over the markets. The GIFT NIFTY futures fell over 25,000 on Monday early morning, but later recouped partially to trade 70 points lower, indicating a weak opening for NIFTY50 on Monday.

Buzzing stocks, NIFTY50, SENSEX

The FII's sold over ₹7,500 crore on Friday, reversing all the buying of Indian equities in the Month of February. Image: Shutterstock.

The NIFTY50 is expected to open in the red after the Middle East war escalated over the weekend. The GIFT NIFTY futures fell below 25,000 in the early morning session, but later recouped the majority of the losses to trade 62 points lower at 25,200 levels.

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Friday’s fall in the NIFTY50 was primarily led by FII’s as they sold over ₹7,500 crore, becoming net sellers for February. The global market cues for NIFTY50 remain weak as Asian markets fell over 2% on Monday amid the escalation in the Middle East war.

Nifty50_2026-03-02_07-56-20.png

On the technical front, Monday’s closing became more important as NIFTY50 closed below the long-term moving average of 200 EMA. A closing below the 200 EMA would confirm the bearish setup for the NIFTY50 in the near term and could intensify the selling pressure in the benchmark and broader indices as well.

March2.png On the options data front, the 25,500 calls hold the highest open interest on the upside, indicating a strong resistance for today’s weekly expiry. On the flipside, the 25,000 puts hold the highest open interest, indicating a near-term support for the NIFTY50 on Monday.

Expiry outlook

Bullish outlook: Traders with bullish sentiment can execute a long call strategy by buying 25,100 calls. The strategy would turn profitable after the index moves above 25,279.
Bearish outlook: Traders with a bearish outlook can execute a long put strategy by buying a put strike of 25,200. The strategy would turn profitable after the index moves below the 25,111 level.

To access a specially curated smartlist of the most traded and active stocks, as well as the OI gainers and losers, simply visit:

https://pro.upstox.com/ --> F&O --> Options smartlist/Futures smartlist. In Futures and Options or F&O, long build-up means an increase in Open Interest (OI) along with a price increase, and short build-up means an increase in Open Interest(OI) along with a price decrease—source: Upstox and NSE.
Disclaimer: Derivatives trading must be done only by traders who fully understand the risks associated with them and strictly apply risk mechanisms like stop losses. The information is only for consumption by the client, and such material should not be redistributed. We do not recommend any particular stock, securities or strategies for trading. The securities quoted are exemplary and are not recommended. The stock names mentioned in this article are purely for showing how to do analysis.
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About The Author

WhatsApp Image 2025-01-20 at 11.25.23.jpeg
Rohan Takalkar is a senior writer at Upstox and a seasoned capital markets analyst with around 9 years of experience. He is passionate about writing on equities, global markets, and the economy.

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