NIFTY, SENSEX to spike? All eyes on stock market after exit polls

Stock market will remain in focus on Monday, June 3, in the aftermath of the exit polls that predict a third consecutive term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

There is a strong possibility that the benchmark indices – NSE NIFTY50 and BSE SENSEX – will surge to fresh highs during the trading session, analysts said.

The GIFT NIFTY is signalling a strong start for the NIFTY50 today, with a gap-up of almost 3%, following the announcement of the exit polls on June 1. This means that the NIFTY50 is likely to open above 23,300, analysts said.

NIFTY futures were trading 647 points or 2.85% higher at 23,335 on the GIFT NIFTY.

Notably, the benchmark indices had witnessed some fluctuations last month after reports of lower voter turnout in initial Lok Sabha election phases, as well as indications of a better-than-expected showing by the Opposition, had led to uncertainty about the poll outcome.

The India VIX, an index that measures the likely volatility in the Indian stock market, had surged past the 20-mark last month which indicated that the market may brace volatility if the election results are not as per the expectations.

In the last trading session on May 31, a day before the final phase of the elections, NIFTY50 had settled 0.19% higher at 22,530.7. The BSE SENSEX had closed 0.1% higher at 73,961.3.

What exit polls predict

Exit polls or the post-election surveys predict a thumping majority for the incumbent BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The coalition, which is headed by PM Modi, is poised to retain power with a brute mandate, as per the surveys.

An aggregate of 10 major exit polls predict the NDA to win around 366 seats, well above the halfway majority mark of 272. The BJP alone is predicted to win more than 310 seats, as per the surveys.

Three exit polls – IndiaTV-CNX, India Today-My Axis and News24-Today's Chanakya – predict the NDA to touch the 400-seat mark.

The Opposition bloc – India National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) – which is led by the Congress is predicted to bag around 144 seats, as per the poll of 10 major exit polls.

Others, which include parties neither aligned with the NDA or INDIA bloc, as well as independent candidates, are expected to cumulatively win 43 seats, according to the aggregate of the 10 exit polls.