ICICI Bank Q4: Profit may remain flat, NII likely to see steady growth; focus on final dividend and NPA

Private sector lender ICICI Bank will announce its March quarter results on April 18, 2026 (Saturday). ICICI Bank is expected to report mixed quarterly earnings with a single-digit rise in net interest income (NII) and flat growth in profitability on a yearly basis. Meanwhile, the bank could also recommend a final dividend for FY26.

Experts believe that ICICI Bank might report flat growth in net profit on a yearly basis to ₹12,630 to ₹12,690 crore, while net profit could rise 10% to 12% sequentially. The private lender registered a standalone net profit of ₹12,630 crore in Q4FY25 and ₹11,318 crore in the previous quarter.

Net interest income (NII) is likely to increase 6% to 7% YoY in the range of ₹22,650 to ₹22,810 crore. Sequentially, NII growth could rise by 3% to 4%. ICICI Bank reported an NII of ₹21,932 crore in the previous quarter, while it stood at ₹21,193 crore in Q4FY25. Meanwhile, ICICI Bank's asset quality is expected to remain stable, with a gross NPA of around 1.5%, while provisions could rise during the quarter.

Investors will closely monitor key performance metrics, including loan and deposit growth, net interest margin, and gross and net non-performing assets (NPAs) during the quarterly result announcement. Investors will also watch out for the impact of rising bond yields and the imposition of a $100-million cap by the RBI on open rupee position in the foreign exchange market on treasury income.

Ahead of the Q4 result announcement, ICICI Bank shares ended the day flat at ₹1,345. So far this year, ICICI Bank shares have given a flat return of 0.1% to its investors amid volatility in broader markets.

Technical outlook

ICICI Bank has staged a sharp recovery after finding support near the ₹1,200 zone, which has acted as a strong base in recent sessions. The stock rebounded decisively from this level and is now trading above its short-term moving averages, indicating improving momentum.

The ₹1,315 level, which earlier acted as resistance, is now being tested as a potential support. A sustained move above this zone could strengthen the bullish bias and open the door for a retest of the ₹1,400–₹1,445 resistance band.

In the near term, holding above ₹1,315 remains key. A break below this level may weaken the recovery and bring ₹1,200 back into focus.

Options outlook

ICICI Bank’s at-the-money (ATM) options for the 28 April expiry is at the 1,350 strike, with both call and put premiums at ₹57. This pricing suggests an expected move of roughly ±4.3% from the 17 April closing level.

To put this into context, it’s useful to review how the stock has historically reacted around earnings announcements.

Options strategy for ICICI Bank

ICICI Bank's options for the 28 April expiry are pricing in a potential move of about ±4.3%, giving traders room to position based on their volatility view.

Traders expecting volatility to pick up, a long straddle could make sense. This involves buying both an at-the-money call and put with the same strike and expiry, and it benefits if the stock moves sharply beyond the ±4.3% range in either direction.

Meanwhile, traders expecting stock to stay relatively stable, a short straddle may be more suitable. Here, you sell both the ATM call and put, aiming to profit if the price remains within that implied range and volatility softens.

Disclaimer:

Derivatives trading must be done only by traders who fully understand the risks associated with them and strictly apply risk mechanisms like stop losses. The information is only for educational purposes. We do not recommend any particular stock, securities or strategies for trading. The stock names mentioned in this article are purely for showing how to do analysis. Take your own decision before investing.