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  1. MCX crude oil tops ₹6,700 on strong momentum; silver slides below 21 EMA; check today's trade setup

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MCX crude oil tops ₹6,700 on strong momentum; silver slides below 21 EMA; check today's trade setup

Upstox

3 min read | Updated on January 13, 2025, 19:31 IST

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SUMMARY

After a gap-up start, MCX crude oil sustained its bullish momentum, surpassing the ₹6,700 mark. The January 17 MCX futures are trading above last week’s high, signalling strength in the trend.

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Commodity trade setup Jan 13: Crude tops ₹6,700 on strong momentum; Silver slides below 21 EMA

Market recap (as of 6:40 pm)

  • Gold 5 Feb Futures: ₹78,270/ 10 gram (▼ 0.2%)
  • Silver 5 March Futures: ₹90,657/ 1 kg (▼ 2.0%)
  • Crude Oil 17 Jan Futures: ₹6,755/ 1 BBL (▲ 2.7%)
Gold: The yellow metal traded marginally lower on Monday, with gold February Futures trading 0.48% lower at $2,703 per ounce. Gold prices fell amid persistent momentum in the U.S. dollar index following stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data last week. The stronger jobs data signalled that the labour market remained strong, reducing the probability of a rate cut by 25% in Fed’s March meeting.
Silver: Silver prices declined in the spot market, slipping 1.58% to $30.82 per ounce. Investors in precious metals are now turning their attention to critical economic updates, including inflation data from the U.S. and the UK, set for release on Wednesday.
Crude Oil: Oil prices started the week on a positive note, with Brent Futures trading at $80.82, up 1.35%, while WTI Crude was trading 1.29% higher at $76.74. Oil prices traded at a four-month high after the U.S. government imposed wider sanctions on Russian oil. The new sanctions include producers Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz, as well as 183 ships that have been transporting Russian oil.

Technical structure

Gold: After a strong rally of nearly 2% over the past four trading sessions, gold is currently trading within Friday’s range, indicating a pause in momentum. According to the MCX daily chart for the February 5 futures contract, gold formed a doji candle on Friday. This pattern, following a sharp rally, suggests consolidation at higher levels.

In the near term, traders should focus on the high and low points of the doji candle, as highlighted in the chart. A decisive break above or below these levels on a closing basis could offer key short-term directional signals.

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Silver: Silver came under profit-booking and slipped over 1%. It is currently trading below the low of the doji candle formed on Friday along with 21 and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). The sharp fall and a close below the doji could signal weakness. On the other hand, the bullish trend will only resume if silver reclaims the ₹93,700 on closing basis.
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Crude oil: Following a gap-up opening, the January 17 crude oil futures on MCX extended their bullish momentum, currently trading above the previous week’s high. This movement reinforces the strength of the underlying trend, with immediate support positioned around the ₹6,300 zone. As long as crude prices remain above this support level, the bullish trend is likely to persist.
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Meanwhile, the open interest data of the 15 January’s expiry indicates strong build-up of put options from 6,000 to 6,700 strikes. This indicates that the traders are expecting crude prices to remain above or around these levels until the expiry. On the other hand, the call base was seen at 6,800 and 7,000 strikes, indicating resistance for crude around these zones.

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Disclaimer:

Derivatives trading must be done only by traders who fully understand the risks associated with them and strictly apply risk mechanisms like stop-losses. The information is only for the client's consumption, and such material should not be redistributed. We do not recommend any particular stock, securities, or strategies for trading. The securities quoted are exemplary and are not recommendatory. The stock names mentioned in this article are purely to show how to do analysis. Take your own decision before investing.

About The Author

Upstox
Upstox News Desk is a team of journalists who passionately cover stock markets, economy, commodities, latest business trends, and personal finance.

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