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  1. Commodity trade setup 16 Dec: Gold and Silver rebound after a volatile week, Crude slips on profit-booking

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Commodity trade setup 16 Dec: Gold and Silver rebound after a volatile week, Crude slips on profit-booking

Upstox

3 min read | Updated on December 16, 2024, 20:35 IST

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SUMMARY

After forming bullish engulfing candle on weekly chart, the WTI oil came under profit booking in the first half of Monday’s session. However, traders should closely monitor previous week’s high of the bullish pattern. A close above the high will indicate continuation of the trend, while a rejection will invalidate the bullish pattern.

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Commodity trade setup 16 Dec: Gold and Silver rebound after a volatile week, Crude slips on profit-booking

Market recap (as of 7:15 pm)

  • Gold 5 Feb Futures: ₹77,075/ 10 gram (▼ 0.08%)
  • Silver 5 March Futures: ₹91,115/ 1 kg (▲ 0.1%)
  • Crude Oil 18 Dec Futures: ₹6,013/ 1 BBL(▼ 0.4%)
Gold: The yellow metal traded lower on Monday, with spot gold trading 0.08% lower at $2,673 per ounce. Precious metal investors are trading cautiously ahead of key economic data, including US Fedreal meeting on interest rate decisions scheduled on December 18.
Silver: Silver prices are also trading marginally higher, up 0.15% at $31.07 per ounce in the spot market.
Crude Oil: Oil prices are trading lower today. Brent Futures traded around $73.97, while WTI Crude traded around $70.32; both are down 0.68% and 1.25%, respectively.

Technical structure

Gold: After surrendering majority of last week’s gains, the yellow metal started Monday’s session on a positive note. The broader structure of the gold still remains bullish as it formed the hammer candlestick pattern during the week ending 13 December. However, it failed to close above the high of the bullish reversal pattern, failing to confirm the pattern on the weekly chart.

For the upcoming sessions, investors can monitor the 20 weekly exponential average on the sport chart. Unless gold slips below this level on a closing basis, the trend is expected to remain positive. Meanwhile, for short-term clues traders can monitor the range of ₹79,100 and ₹76,400 of the 5 February Futures on MCX. A break of this range will provide further directional clues.

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Silver: After a volatile week, silver prices started the Monday’s session on a muted note and are trading in the green. It failed to build on its bullish momentum during the week and failed to break the five week long consolidation on a closing basis.

Meanwhile, the short-term structure of the silver has turned weak and until it breaks the previous week’s range, it may remain range-bound between the broad range of ₹96,000 and ₹89,000.

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Crude Oil: Oil prices experienced a sharp rebound last week, recovering from a key support zone and forming a bullish engulfing candle on the weekly chart. However, Monday saw profit-taking, causing prices to lose momentum and preventing a continuation of the previous week’s gains.

Despite this, the broader structure of WTI crude oil has remained range-bound between $67 and $73 over the past five weeks. A decisive close above last week’s bullish pattern’s high could signal a potential extension of gains, with prices targeting the upper range limit of $73.

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The open interest data on the MCX of 15 January expiry saw significant call and put base at 6000 strike, suggesting range-bound activity around this level for the upcoming sessions.

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Disclaimer:

Derivatives trading must be done only by traders who fully understand the risks associated with them and strictly apply risk mechanisms like stop-losses. The information is only for the client's consumption, and such material should not be redistributed. We do not recommend any particular stock, securities, or strategies for trading. The securities quoted are exemplary and are not recommendatory. The stock names mentioned in this article are purely to show how to do analysis. Take your own decision before investing.

About The Author

Upstox
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