Exit polls point to NDA sweep in Bihar; Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj to make little impact

Exit polls on Tuesday predicted a comfortable victory for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the Bihar Assembly elections, suggesting a decisive edge for the ruling alliance led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar over the opposition Mahagathbandhan.

The survey agencies suggest that Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj made little impact in its first electoral outing.

According to the Matrize Exit Poll, the NDA is likely to win between 147 and 167 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan is expected to secure 70 to 90, and Jan Suraaj a marginal 0 to 2. The Dainik Bhaskar exit poll gave a similar projection, estimating 145–160 seats for the NDA and 73–91 for the opposition bloc.

The majority mark in the 243-member Bihar Assembly is 122.

Pollsters People’s Insight and People’s Pulse also suggested a strong NDA showing, giving the alliance 133–148 and 133–159 seats, respectively.

The JVC poll estimated 135–150 seats for the NDA and 88–103 for the Mahagathbandhan, while Polstrat offered similar projections with 133–148 and 87–102 seats, respectively.

Chanakya Strategies forecast a relatively tighter contest, giving 130–138 seats to the NDA and 100–108 to the Mahagathbandhan, while P-Marq predicted 142–162 for the NDA, 80–98 for the opposition, and 1–4 for Jan Suraaj.

Two major pollsters, Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya, are expected to release their exit polls on Wednesday.

To be sure, exit poll projections are based on surveys conducted among voters after casting their ballots and may vary significantly from actual results when votes are counted.

The ruling NDA, comprising the BJP, JD(U) and LJP (Ram Vilas) as major constituents, is seeking another term under Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, while the opposition Mahagathbandhan, part of the INDIA bloc led by RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav, is banking on anti-incumbency sentiment and its support base among youth and minorities.

Bihar on Tuesday recorded its highest-ever voter turnout of 68.49%, provisionally, as polling concluded in the second and final phase. The turnout in this phase, covering 122 constituencies and 3.7 crore voters, surpassed the 65.09% recorded in the first phase on November 6.

Officials said the figure may rise further as many polling booths reported long queues even after 5 pm.

The highest turnout was registered in Kishanganj (76.26%), followed by Katihar (75.23%) and Purnea (73.79%), while Nawada reported the lowest at 57.31%..

Although Nitish Kumar, a member of the Legislative Council, is not contesting the polls, the NDA has projected his governance record as its biggest plank against anti-incumbency.

While Jan Suraaj founder Prashant Kishor claimed the increased turnout reflected a growing appetite for “an alternative” in Bihar, early indicators suggest his year-old party has struggled to translate public enthusiasm into votes.

The results on November 14 will determine whether Bihar renews its trust in the Nitish Kumar-led NDA or opts for a change under the RJD-Congress alliance.