Will November bring a breakthrough in India–US trade talks? NITI Aayog CEO teases what’s coming

India is hopeful of positive news on its proposed Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) with the United States by the end of November, NITI Aayog Chief Executive B.V.R. Subrahmanyam said on Friday, as both sides continue efforts to reset their strained trade ties.

“I think things have been a bit difficult with the United States, and I think a reset is being tried. The trade negotiations are on... Hopefully, by end of the month, we may hear some news on that front,” Subrahmanyam said at CNBC-TV18’s Global Leadership Summit 2025.

He also said India’s long-awaited National Manufacturing Mission is expected to be operational by the end of November.

Subrahmanyam’s remarks come amid ongoing friction between New Delhi and Washington over India’s continued purchases of Russian crude oil.

The US introduced 25% punitive tariffs on India for continuing to import Russian oil and later imposed sanctions on Russian energy majors Rosneft and Lukoil. The new levy comes in addition to an existing 25% duty on Indian goods entering the US, effectively doubling import tariffs to 50% on Indian exports.

Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal on Wednesday said that talks for the trade pact were ongoing and progressing steadily, although “many sensitive and serious issues” remain to be resolved.

"Talks are going well...and are continuously going on. ..kaee samvedanasheel mudde hai, kaee gambheer mudde hai, toh svaabhaavik hai ki thoda samay lagega (There are many sensitive issues, many serious issues, so it is natural that it will take some time)," he told reporters in New Zealand.

A team of Indian negotiators, led by Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal, held a three-day round of talks in Washington that concluded on October 17, wrapping up the fifth round of discussions.

In February, both governments agreed to fast-track negotiations and target completion of the first phase of the agreement by the fall of 2025.

The proposed BTA seeks to more than double bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030 from the current $191 billion, aiming to remove tariff barriers and boost market access.

The US remained India’s largest trading partner for the fourth consecutive year in 2024-25, with total trade reaching $131.84 billion, including $86.5 billion in exports, according to Commerce Ministry data.

However, India’s exports to the US fell 11.9% year-on-year in September, while imports rose 11.8%, as high tariffs began to weigh on trade volumes.