US election result: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, when will we know who won?

The months-long fierce battle for the White House is nearing its end as American voters go to the polls on November 5 to choose their next president. More than 78 million votes have already been cast even as the early voting is down from the 2020 levels, according to US media reports. While the pre-election voting in the 2020 presidential election comprised 70% of the total votes polled, reports suggest that the early voting in 2024 could be down to 50%.

The choice between former President Donald Trump and incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris could not only have a huge impact on US markets, it could also influence global markets.

Trump, in his final rally ahead of November 5 voting, said his real opponent this election was “an evil Democrat system” and not just Kamala Harris.

“We will defeat the corrupt system in Washington. Because I’m not running against Kamala, I’m running against an evil Democrat system. These are evil people,” Trump said in Michigan.

Kamala Harris, on the other hand, dropped Donald Trump's name in her campaign finale.

“We have an opportunity in this election to finally turn the page on a decade of politics that has been driven by fear and division,” Harris said. “We are done with that. We’re done. We’re exhausted with it.”

When will we know the winner?

With both candidates having made the final pitch, all eyes are on the voters who will decide America’s fate for the next four years and beyond.

US television networks and news agencies usually call the election within hours of the polls closing, but political pundits are expecting a tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, which could mean a longer wait. In some past elections, media outlets have been able to project a winner late on election night or early the next morning. This year’s expected razor-thin margin in several key states could delay results as news organisations hold off projections until they are more certain of the outcome.

Narrow wins in battleground states could also trigger recounts. In Pennsylvania, for example, a statewide recount is mandatory if the margin between the top two candidates is 0.5 percentage points or less.

During the 2020 election, Pennsylvania’s final margin exceeded the threshold but was still close, at just over 1.1 percentage points. In 2020, the election took place on November 3, but US television networks did not project Joe Biden as the winner until late morning on November 7. In 2016, Trump’s victory was called around 03:00 EST the morning after the election. Barack Obama’s 2012 reelection was projected before midnight on election day itself.

The US election results are expected to start trickling in shortly after the first polls close on Tuesday. Polls will close at 9pm (7.30am IST Wednesday) in the key state of Arizona, which Joe Biden carried in 2020 by 0.3%, becoming the only the second Democratic presidential candidate to do so in nearly 70 years. In Georgia, which played a crucial role in Biden's 2020 win, the polls close at 7pm (5:30am IST Wednesday).

Last time, Joe Biden was able to wrest Michigan from Donald Trump, who narrowly carried one of the “blue wall” states in 2016. In Michigan, which covers two time zones, polls in most of the state close at 8pm (6:30am IST), with the rest at 9 pm (7:30am IST). Nevada, which has one of the best track records as a presidential bellwether, will start voting at 10am ET (8:30pm IST) and end at 10 pm ET (8:30 am on Wednesday, IST).