Trump’s tariff impact: India’s exports to US dip 11.93%, imports up 11.78% in September

India’s merchandise exports to the United States fell by nearly 12% in September following the steep 50% tariff imposed by Washington on most Indian goods, even as imports from the US rose during the month, government data showed.

According to the commerce ministry, outbound shipments to the US declined 11.93% to USD 5.46 billion in September, compared with USD 6.2 billion a year earlier. Imports, however, increased 11.78% to USD 3.98 billion.

During April–September 2025, India’s exports to the US still registered growth of 13.37% to USD 45.82 billion, while imports rose 9% to USD 25.6 billion, indicating that the full impact of the tariffs began to show only from late August.

US President Donald Trump had announced sweeping 25% tariffs on Indian goods entering American markets, citing concerns over trade imbalances and “unfair subsidies.” He later doubled the tariff to 50% over India’s continued purchase of Russian oil.

Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal is expected to join the Indian delegation in the US today for trade talks, with India indicating its readiness to step up energy imports from America.

In the past 7-8 years, energy purchases from the US, largely crude oil, have come down from USD 25 billion to around USD 12-13 billion.

"So, there is a headroom of around USD 12-15 billion, which we can purchase without worrying about the configuration of refineries," Agrawal told reporters.

"And there is a bilateral commitment, and in discussions we are in, we have indicated very positively that India as a country would like to diversify its portfolio as far as energy imports are concerned. That's the best strategy for a big buyer like India."

Sharpest monthly fall of 2025

According to data compiled by economic think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), India’s exports to the US in September plunged 17.9% from USD 6.87 billion in August, the sharpest monthly fall of 2025 and the fourth consecutive monthly decline.

“September was the first full month in which Indian goods faced Washington’s 50% tariff on most products,” said GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava, adding that India’s exports to the US have fallen steadily since June.

Between May and September, exports have dropped by nearly 37.5%, wiping out more than USD 3.3 billion in monthly shipment value, he said.

“The United States has become India’s most severely affected market since the tariff escalation began, with sectors such as textiles, gems and jewellery, engineering goods, and chemicals suffering the heaviest losses,” Srivastava added.

China bucks the trend

While exports to the US took a hit, India’s shipments to China recorded a sharp jump in September, rising 34.18% to USD 1.46 billion. During April–September, exports to China grew 21.96% to USD 8.41 billion.

Imports from China also rose 16.35% in September to USD 11.31 billion, and were up 11.25% in the first half of FY26 at USD 62.88 billion.

Mixed performance with other partners

India’s exports to countries including the UAE, the UK, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Australia, Bangladesh, Brazil, and Italy posted positive growth in September. However, shipments to the Netherlands, Singapore, and France saw a decline.

On the import front, India recorded lower inbound shipments from Russia, Korea, Australia, Vietnam, Germany, and Taiwan, while imports from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and Thailand increased during the month.