There will be no impact on India-US bilateral relationship post-election, says think tank expert

The relations between India and the US over the last three decades have become strong and well entrenched irrespective of whether a Democrat or a Republican is elected as president, a top American think-tank expert has said, exuding confidence that bilateral ties would remain unchanged in the next administration.

These remarks were made by Aparna Pande, the research fellow at the prestigious Hudson Institute think tank.

“There will be no impact on the India-US relationship because India-US relations over the last three decades have become strong and well entrenched. Irrespective of whether a Democrat or a Republican is elected president, the relationship will remain just as strong, whether it's economic, whether it's commercial, defense, or strategic,” Pande told PTI.

“Every American president since President Clinton has visited India, and every Indian Prime Minister over the last three and a half decades has visited the United States multiple times. India matters to the US national security strategy. The last three national security strategies have listed India as a key partner, not only in pushing back against the rise of China but in the economic and defence realm as well,” she said.

The key signature elements of the Biden administration have been the Indo-Pacific Strategy and Quad.

“But as you know well, the Indo-Pacific actually was started under the Trump administration. So if President Trump returns, I don't see any change in the Indo-Pacific strategy because, for him, China remains the key threat and rival. Since it was under him that Quad was restarted, Quad will also continue to remain just as prominent,” she said.

“Similarly, under the Harris administration, both the Indo-Pacific and Quad will remain important. There will be tweaks. The Biden administration brought ICET, which is an Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies, which includes a strong defence partnership, as well as civilian and semiconductors,” she said.

“The Harris administration may want to add something to that to make it, you know, sort of something more specific either in the tech area or in the defence area. Similarly, the Trump administration wants to focus a little more on China,” Pande said.

“Where there may be differences would be on the commercial side of the India-US relationship. For President Trump, trade matters. Even under his administration, there was a lot of pushback against India on opening trade, on tariffs. He took away the GSP. So the trade partnership may become a little more friction-ridden under a Trump administration,” she said.

“Under the Harris administration, I don't see trade becoming a problem. However, there may be questions that are asked about... more sort of, you know, the slightly prickly... on democracy, human rights, and religious freedom,” Pande said.

Responding to a question on Bangladesh, Pande said the situation there is worrying from an American and an Indian perspective.

“It is unfortunate that the US administration is not focusing as much on Bangladesh. They have not called what has happened a coup, though in all intents and purposes, if a General has taken over, then to some extent it is a coup. We have to wait and see what happens in Bangladesh,” she said.

“However, the US should be more focused on a country of around 170 million, which is right next to India, next to Myanmar, and very close to China in the Indian Ocean region. Any increase in China's influence, which is already present in Bangladesh because of BRI, economic aid, and defence aid, will hurt American interests,” she said.

“It also hurts India's interests because India needs a neighbour which keeps India's security interests in mind. Bangladesh has done that for the last decade and a half. India's internal security comes into play when Bangladesh is there. So both India and the US should watch development in Bangladesh closely."

"The fact that the ban has been lifted on Islamist groups is worrying, and sort of internal instability will always lead to malign actors playing a bigger role,” she said.

“There is a lot of concern about Bangladesh. I'm not sure when elections will next be held there and what will happen in the meantime in that country,” she said.

Noting that “unfortunately” the US and India have slightly different views on Bangladesh, Pande said from India's point of view the way India sees its neighbours is its first layer of security, and a stable neighbour is what India seeks.

“India does not seek democracy promotion and has never done that. From India's point of view, a stable neighbour that keeps India's interests in mind, India has, you know, offered developmental assistance and security assistance. The US has felt that under former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, the government had become too authoritarian, and therefore the United States had sanctioned a few paramilitary forces in Bangladesh and also criticised the government,” she said.

“The two countries actually agree to disagree on Bangladesh, unfortunately. Let's see if they can cooperate in the coming months and years to ensure that China does not benefit from the internal politics and problems inside Bangladesh,” Pande said.