Monsoon likely to be 'above normal' in India this year, IMD issues forecast. Details here

The rainfall caused by the Southwest Monsoon winds is expected to be "above normal", at around 106% of the long-period average (LPA), in the upcoming monsoon season, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its forecast released on Monday, April 15.

The LPA, according to the weather department, is defined as the 50-year average of 87 cm of rainfall during the four months that stretch from June 1 to September 31. A cumulative rainfall in the range of 96% to 104% of the LPA is considered as a 'normal' monsoon season.

As per the IMD's forecast of 106% rainfall, the cumulative amount of downpour for the upcoming season is estimated at around 92.2 cm. In a comparison, a total rainfall of 82 cm was recorded in the 2023 monsoon season.

The weather department said its above-normal rainfall prediction for this year is backed by the setting in of La Nina by August-September. La Nina, a weather phenomenon linked with higher rainfall, will replace the current onset of El Nino that has raised ocean surface temperature and is associated with suppressed rainfall activity.

The official added that the above-normal rainfall is expected in most parts of the country, barring some portions of the northwest, east and northern states.

What Skymet Weather forecasts for 2024 monsoon

The IMD forecast comes a week after private weather agency Skymet estimated a "normal" monsoon season this year. The agency predicted a rainfall of around 102% of the LPA, with the amount of downpour increasing during the second half of the season when La Nina is expected to settle in.

“The second half of the season will have an overwhelming edge over the primal phase," Skymet Managing Director Jatin Singh had said, in a release issued on April 9.

According to Skymet, rainfall could be deficit in some of the country’s eastern states. It specifically named the states of Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Odisha.

On other hand, “sufficiently good rains” are expected in the South, West, and Northwest regions, it noted. The core monsoon rainfed zone of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh “will receive adequate rainfall”, the agency added.

Monthwise, Skymet sees 95% rainfall of the LPA in June. The rain activity will gain pace in July, with a cumulative expected downpour of 105% of LPA; followed by 98% of LPA in August and 110% of the long-term average in September.