Mediators push 45-day US-Iran ceasefire; odds of deal in 48 hours low: Axios

The United States, Iran and regional mediators are discussing terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire that could pave the way for a permanent end to the war, but chances of a near-term breakthrough remain slim, Axios reported on Monday, citing people familiar with the negotiations.

According to the report, the mediators are working to broker a two-phase agreement, though prospects for even a partial deal in the next 48 hours are low.

The diplomatic push comes as US President Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran approaches.

The deadline, initially set to expire Monday evening, was extended by about 20 hours to Tuesday at 8 pm ET, Trump said in a post on Truth Social that also included a warning, laced with profanity, of potential strikes on Iranian infrastructure.

“Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran,” Trump wrote. “There will be nothing like it!!! Open the F****n’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah.”

According to Axios, the current effort is seen by mediators as a last attempt to avert a sharp escalation that could include large-scale attacks on Iranian civilian infrastructure and retaliation targeting energy and water facilities in Gulf states.

Talks are being conducted through intermediaries from Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey, as well as via indirect communication between Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, the report said.

Washington has reportedly presented several proposals in recent days, but Iran has yet to accept them.

Two-phase deal

Under the framework being discussed, the first phase would involve a 45-day ceasefire during which negotiations toward a permanent settlement would continue.

The second phase would focus on a comprehensive agreement to end the war.

The mediators are reportedly exploring interim confidence-building steps by Iran on both fronts, but Tehran is unlikely to fully concede these leverage points in exchange for a temporary ceasefire.

Despite the reported diplomatic activity, Iran has maintained a hard public stance. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps navy said Sunday that conditions in the Strait of Hormuz would “never return” to pre-war norms for the US and Israel.

Meanwhile, senior Iranian adviser Ali Akbar Velayati warned that Tehran could also disrupt shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb, a key maritime chokepoint for global trade.