Is Israel preparing to hit Iran's nuclear sites? What we know about US intel as oil prices jump

Oil prices surged over 1% on Wednesday following a CNN report citing unnamed US intelligence officials that Israel may be planning an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, even as the Trump administration pursues diplomatic negotiations with Tehran.

Such a move could have far-reaching consequences, including a spike in global oil prices and the risk of a broader regional conflict.

What signs suggest Israel may be preparing for a strike?

According to CNN, US intelligence has detected signs of Israeli preparations, including intercepted communications and observations of military movements such as air munitions repositioning and a recent air exercise.

However, the report suggests there is uncertainty about whether Israel has finalised its plans amid disagreements within the US government over the likelihood of a strike.

The prospect of an Israeli attack has “gone up significantly in recent months,” particularly if US-Iran talks fail to eliminate Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, CNN reported, citing a person familiar with US intelligence.

Why is Iran’s nuclear program so controversial?

Iran’s nuclear program has been a global flashpoint since 2002, when secret facilities were uncovered, violating the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which Iran signed. The NPT allows non-military nuclear technology but prohibits nuclear weapons development.

Iran insists its nuclear program is for civilian purposes, a claim met with skepticism by the US, Israel, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

In 2015, Iran and six world powers—the US, China, France, Russia, Germany, and the UK—signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), limiting Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief.

The deal capped Iran’s uranium stockpile at 300 kilograms enriched to 3.67%, far below the 90% needed for weapons. It also allowed IAEA inspections of Iran’s nuclear sites.

However, in 2018, President Donald Trump withdrew the US from the JCPOA, calling it a “bad deal” for not being permanent and failing to address Iran’s ballistic missile programme or its regional activities.

The US reinstated severe economic sanctions, prompting Iran to retaliate by breaching key JCPOA commitments.

How close is Iran to developing a nuclear weapon?

The IAEA reported in March 2025 that Iran possesses around 275kg of uranium enriched to 60% purity, enough to theoretically produce several nuclear weapons if further enriched to 90%.

US officials estimate Iran could produce weapons-grade material for one bomb within a week, though constructing a functional nuclear weapon could take six months to 18 months, according to CNN.

The US and Iran have engaged in indirect talks in Muscat, Oman, described by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi as “expert-level” negotiations aimed at a deal to limit Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief.

Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, however, expressed doubt about their outcome.

“Yes, indirect negotiations were held during Raisi’s time too, just like now,” he said during a memorial for late President Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash last year. “But they didn’t go anywhere — and we don’t expect much from the current ones either. Who knows what will happen."

He also pushed back against American criticism of Iran’s nuclear program, saying that Tehran won’t seek permission from anyone to enrich uranium.

“They say, ‘We won’t allow Iran to enrich uranium.’ That’s way out of line,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said.

“No one in Iran is waiting for their permission. The Islamic Republic has its own policies and direction — and it will stick to them.”

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country will continue talks with the US but will not withdraw from its rights because of American threats.

“We are negotiating, and we will negotiate. We are not after war but we do not fear any threat,” he said.

What is Israel’s position on Iran’s nuclear ambitions?

Israel, which has not signed the NPT and is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons, views a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential threat, given Tehran’s refusal to recognizse Israel’s right to exist. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has insisted any deal must eliminate Iran’s nuclear program entirely, including destroying facilities and equipment under US supervision.

Many of Iran’s key nuclear sites, such as those at Natanz and Fordow, are buried deep underground, requiring powerful bunker-busting bombs to penetrate. While the US possesses such munitions, Israel is not known to have them, and would likely require American assistance, including midair refuelling, to execute a successful strike.

The US is unlikely to assist Israel in attacking Iran’s nuclear sites at this stage, unless a major provocation from Tehran, according to the CNN report.