India-US trade talks: Piyush Goyal back from US with deal still hanging in balance; what we know so far

An Indian delegation, led by Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal, has returned from the United States after a fresh round of trade talks to break a months-long deadlock over a proposed bilateral trade agreement.

Goyal is expected to arrive in New Delhi on Friday.

The delegation spent four days in New York discussing the contours of a long-pending trade pact with American counterparts, an official said.

“The Indian official team is back from the US,” PTI quoted the official, as saying.

High-stakes negotiations

The talks, which began Monday, were held across multiple levels and addressed both trade and non-trade issues. Goyal met US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer during the visit, while India’s chief negotiator Rajesh Agrawal held technical discussions with US negotiators.

Both sides are seeking to revive a draft deal that was largely finalised months ago but stalled after the White House sought additional concessions from New Delhi.

A previous round of day-long discussions between US Chief Negotiator Brendan Lynch and Agrawal in New Delhi earlier this month was described as “positive,” with both sides agreeing to push for an early conclusion.

Key sticking points

The proposed deal, intended to more than double bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030 from $191 billion, has been bogged down by disagreements over US market access for agricultural products, tariff reciprocity and unresolved World Trade Organization disputes.

Washington has also imposed a 25% tariff and an additional 25% penalty on Indian goods over India’s purchase of Russian crude oil.

Indian officials have repeatedly insisted they will not cross key “red lines,” even in the face of US tariff threats.

New Delhi is reportedly seeking a single-step removal of the punitive tariffs and a unified tariff framework, while offering concessions such as potential defence purchases and nuclear collaboration to sweeten the deal, The Indian Express reported.

The visit took place just days after the US announced a sharp increase in H-1B visa application fees to $100,000, a decision India’s technology industry says will hurt business continuity for onshore projects.

Industry body Nasscom warned the move could disrupt operations for Indian IT service providers that rely heavily on US visas.

India was among the first countries to initiate formal trade talks with Washington this year, completing five negotiation rounds between March and July. Goyal also travelled to Washington in May to meet US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Greer as part of the effort to finalise the deal.

The US remained India's largest trading partner for the fourth consecutive year in 2024-25, with bilateral trade valued at USD 131.84 billion (USD 86.5 billion exports).

The US accounts for about 18% of India's total goods exports, 6.22% in imports, and 10.73% in the country's total merchandise trade.

What’s next

Both governments have previously set an informal target of concluding the first tranche of the Bilateral Trade Agreement by October or November.

There has been no confirmation whether a breakthrough was achieved in New York, but the discussions are expected to form the basis for a potential agreement as early as this fall.

However, India and the US have been at this juncture earlier as well, and things can change at the spur of a moment.