India-US tariff standoff likely to end within 8–10 weeks; reciprocal duty may also come down: CEA

India expects to resolve a trade dispute with the United States over punitive tariffs within the next eight to ten weeks, the country’s chief economic adviser said on Thursday, raising hopes for a breakthrough in talks between the two partners.

Washington imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods from August 27 in response to New Delhi’s purchases of Russian oil, doubling the overall levy to 50%.

“Underneath the surface, conversations are going on between the two governments,” Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran told an interactive session organised by the Bharat Chamber of Commerce. “My hunch is that in the next eight to ten weeks, we will likely see a solution to the tariffs imposed by the US on Indian goods.”

He said that New Delhi’s reciprocal 25% tariff on US imports could also be scaled back to between 10% and 15% if a deal is reached.

Nageswaran noted that prolonged tariffs would hurt Indian exports to the US, one of New Delhi’s largest trading partners.

His comments follow “positive” and “forward-looking” trade discussions held in New Delhi on Tuesday between a US delegation led by Brendan Lynch, chief negotiator for the India-US Bilateral Trade Agreement, and Indian officials headed by Commerce Department Special Secretary Rajesh Agarwal.

Talks, which lasted about seven hours, covered “various aspects of the trade deal,” the Commerce Ministry said in a statement, adding that both sides agreed to intensify efforts to reach a “mutually beneficial” agreement.

The face-to-face discussions came days after US President Donald Trump struck a more conciliatory tone on trade.

Last week, Trump said he was “certain” India and the US would have “no difficulty” reaching a deal, signalling optimism after months of tension over tariffs and oil purchases from Russia.

On Tuesday, Trump said he had a “wonderful” phone call with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during which he extended birthday greetings and thanked him for supporting US efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war.

Modi thanked Trump for his greetings and reiterated his commitment to strengthening India-US ties. “Like you, I am also fully committed to taking the India-US Comprehensive and Global Partnership to new heights. We support your initiatives towards a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine conflict,” the prime minister said.

While neither gave any details of any agreement on Ukraine, the call was seen as a sign of further thawing of US-Indian tensions.