ICRA cuts domestic PV wholesale growth forecast to 1-4% for FY26

Ratings agency ICRA on Thursday lowered domestic passenger vehicles wholesale volume growth forecast to 1-4% for FY26, citing concerns over high inventory levels and shortage of critical components such as rare earth magnets for especially for electric vehicles.

ICRA had earlier pegged the passenger vehicles (PV) wholesale volume growth for FY26 at 4-7% over FY25.

The downward revision is "led by concerns regarding high inventory levels and supply shortage of critical components such as rare earth magnets, induced production constraints, especially for electric vehicles," ICRA said in a statement.

"However, steady model launches from original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are expected to partially support the overall industry volumes in the current fiscal year," it added.

In May this year, domestic PV retail sales witnessed a 13.6% month-on-month contraction at 3,02,214 units as against 3,49,939 units in April 2025, primarily due to subdued consumer sentiment amid heightened geopolitical tensions in northern India following the India-Pakistan conflict, ICRA noted.

Despite continued discounting by automakers, demand for PV softened, it said.

On the other hand, the two-wheeler segment demonstrated stronger performance, with retail volumes growing 7% year-on-year (YoY) supported by robust rural demand and a healthy harvest season.

Looking ahead in the two-wheeler segment, ICRA said it maintains a "cautiously optimistic outlook, projecting 6-9% wholesale volume growth for FY26, driven by steady replacement demand, a potential urban market recovery, and healthy rural incomes, contingent on a normal monsoon".