How close are India and US to sealing a trade deal? Trump signals tariff cuts 'at some point'

US President Donald Trump on Monday said the United States is “pretty close” to finalising a “fair trade deal” with India, and he would lower the tariffs “at some point.”

“We're making a deal with India, much different deal than we had in the past. So right now, they don't love me, but they'll love us again,” Trump said during a ceremony in the Oval Office where Sergio Gor was sworn in as US Ambassador to India by Vice President J.D. Vance.

The president, flanked by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, said the two nations were nearing an agreement.

“We're getting a fair deal, just a fair trade deal. We had pretty unfair trade deals… They're very good negotiators, Sergio, so you have to take a look at that,” he said.

Turning to Bessent, Trump added, “Scott, I think we're pretty close to doing a deal that's good for everybody.”

When asked about the possibility of lowering tariffs on Indian imports, Trump suggested a review was underway.

“Right now the tariffs are very high on India because of the Russian oil, and they've stopped doing the Russian oil. It's been reduced very substantially. Yeah, we're going to be bringing the tariffs down,” he said. “At some point, we're going to be bringing them down.”

Trump had imposed tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods, including a 25% levy linked to New Delhi’s procurement of Russian oil. India described the move as “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable,” saying its energy decisions were driven by national interest.

The remarks come amid ongoing negotiations between the two countries on a Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA), which aims to more than double trade volumes to $500 billion by 2030.

NITI Aayog CEO B.V.R. Subrahmanyam said on Friday that some positive news on the proposed BTA could emerge by the end of November.

“I think things have been a bit difficult with the United States, and I think a reset is being tried. The trade negotiations are on... Hopefully, by end of the month, we may hear some news on that front,” he said at CNBC-TV18’s Global Leadership Summit.

Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, speaking in New Zealand last week, confirmed that discussions were progressing, but cautioned that “many sensitive and serious issues” still needed to be resolved.

Negotiators from both sides concluded the fifth round of trade talks in Washington on October 17. The first phase of the BTA is targeted for completion by fall 2025, according to a February agreement between the two governments.

The US has remained India’s largest trading partner for four consecutive years, with bilateral trade totalling $131.84 billion in 2024-25, including $86.5 billion in exports from India. However, India’s exports to the U.S. fell 11.9% year-on-year in September, while imports rose 11.8%, as tariffs weighed on trade volumes.