Economic Survey 2025-26: Gold, silver prices to remain elevated amid persistent global uncertainties

Gold and silver rates in India are expected to remain elevated due to heightened global uncertainties until trade wars are resolved and a durable peace is established, according to the Economic Survey 2025-26.

Both gold and silver touched lifetime highs in 2025, rising by up to 166%. The precious metals rise in uncertain situations like geopolitical tensions, market fluctuations and weak currencies. 

The bull run was supported by a weakening US dollar, expectations of persistently negative real rates and the market's growing assessment of geopolitical and financial tail risks, the survey said. 

"The prices of precious metals, both gold and silver, are likely to continue increasing due to their sustained demand as safe-haven investments amid global uncertainties, unless a durable peace is established and trade wars are resolved," it said. 

Silver futures breached the ₹4 lakh per kg mark for the first time in India on Thursday, January 29, rising by 6.3% to a new record high of ₹4,09,800 per kg on the Multi Commodity Exchange. Gold futures also touched a new record, soaring by 8.9% to ₹1,80,779 per 10 gram. 

Some commentators feel that the torrid pace set by gold and silver in 2025 may not be sustained, the survey added.

In FY25, India's import composition continued to be dominated by petroleum crude, gold and petroleum products, with these sectors accounting for over one-third of total imports, it said. Gold imports increased by 27.4% year-on-year (YoY) basis. 

The rise in gold imports may be attributed to a rise in gold prices, driven by strong domestic consumption, the survey said.

Meanwhile, foreign currency assets (FCA), which form the liquid core of reserves, fell slightly from $567.6 billion in end March 2025 to $560.5 billion as of 16 January 2026.

On the other hand, the gold component grew significantly to $117.5 billion as of 16 January 2026, compared with $78.2 billion at the end of March 2025, it added.

This increase reflects both valuation gains during a period of elevated global gold prices and a continued preference among central banks for diversifying into non-dollar reserve assets, the Economic Survey tabled in Parliament on Thursday said. 

The growing share of gold in reserves aligns with a broader international pattern where many emerging markets have increased gold holdings amid geopolitical uncertainty and shifts in the global interest-rate cycle, it said.

According to the survey, gold prices rose from $2,607 to $4,315 per ounce in 2025, marking one of the steepest annual gains seen in recent years. 

In contrast, base metals, such as iron, copper and aluminium, are expected to increase moderately. Copper’s price is expected to remain elevated on the back of strong industrial demand from green technology and data centres, combined with supply disruptions. 

However, the survey cited the World Bank’s Commodity Prices Outlook, October 2025, which projected that global commodity prices are expected to fall by nearly 7% in FY27, primarily because of subdued crude oil prices amid oversupply. "Geopolitics may come in the way of this prediction," it said.