Domestic jewellery retail industry likely to record 18% revenue growth in FY27: Ind-Ra

India Ratings & Research (Ind-Ra) in its latest report has said that the domestic jewellery retail industry is expected to record nearly 18% revenue growth in FY27, with rising bullion prices expected to drive value growth. Ind-Ra has revised its FY26 revenue growth estimate upward by 600 bps to 23% YoY, led by price effects, and expects it to settle at a high-teen rate (18%) for FY27 on a high base.

Consequently, it has revised its outlook on the retail jewellery sector to neutral from improving for FY27. Preeti Kumaran, Senior Analyst, India Ratings & Research, said, ‘Jewellery volumes are set to drop sharply in FY26 - the steepest post-pandemic decline, due to high gold prices, but strong festive and wedding-season buying in 2HFY26 boosted sentiments, even at record high prices, leading to an upward revision in our revenue growth expectations.’

She stated reshaping buyer behaviour to accept record-high gold prices as the new normal, along with re-aligning the product mix by increasing the proportion of studded jewellery, lower-purity (9k, 14k and 18k) gold jewellery, light and ultra-light pieces for the mass segment to accelerate inventory turns, will help jewellers in navigating industry challenges over the near to medium term.

Besides, the report noted that with gold outperforming with exceptional returns among various asset classes, investment demand is expected to remain steady. In the current volatile pricing environment, the report stated most jewellers will keep hedging through daily or weekly replenishment models to average out prices, and overall revenue growth is likely to remain intact, as price gains offset any volume decline and volume growth offsets any price corrections.