After US sanctions, is India’s Russian oil inflows shrinking? Here's what numbers suggest

India’s imports of Russian crude have fallen sharply after the United States imposed sanctions on Moscow’s oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil, The Indian Express reported on Tuesday, citing provisional shipping data.

In the week to October 27, crude exports from Russia to India averaged about 1.19 million barrels per day (bpd), down from 1.95 million bpd in the previous two weeks, according to vessel tracking data from commodities analytics firm Kpler.

The decline was driven by lower shipments from Rosneft and Lukoil, which together account for more than half of Russia’s oil exports and made up roughly two-thirds of India’s Russian oil imports.

Exports from Rosneft fell to 0.81 million bpd in the week to October 27 from 1.41 million bpd the previous week, while Lukoil recorded no shipments to India during the period, according to the report.

The US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced the sanctions on October 22, giving companies until November 21 to wind down transactions with the two firms.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the new restrictions were a direct response to Moscow’s refusal to end what he called its “senseless war.”

“Following the sanctions, we observed accelerated Russian crude arrivals ahead of the deadline, with no refiner except Nayara (which has Rosneft as a shareholder) expected to import from sanctioned suppliers thereafter,” Express quoted Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst at Kpler, as saying.

“Flows are likely to remain around 1.6–1.8 million bpd until November 21, before tapering as refiners avoid potential OFAC-related exposure,” he added.

Refiner HPCL-Mittal Energy (HMEL) has suspended Russian oil imports, while state-run Indian Oil Corp said it will comply with all international sanctions. Reliance Industries, India’s biggest private refiner and top buyer of Russian crude, said it was assessing compliance requirements and would follow government guidance.

Russian oil accounted for about 34% of India’s total crude imports in October, averaging 1.62 million bpd, according to Kpler data.

Analysts expect imports to dip in December and January as refiners rebuild supply chains, but said a complete halt in Russian flows remains unlikely given competitive prices and India’s reluctance to align with unilateral US sanctions.