Trade setup for Nov 9: Can NIFTY bounce back above 25,000 on weekly expiry day?

Indian benchmark indices are expected to resume its rally on Monday after a pause on the special muhurat trading session on Sunday. The GIFT NIFTY futures traded near 25,086, up nearly 100 points, indicating a gap up opening for NIFTY50 on Monday.

Crude oil prices extended previous week’s correction on Monday morning, after Trump’s comments abated uncertainty. President Trump said he is highly unlikely to order strikes on Iran if the negotiations make significant progress. Brent crude hovered near $97 per barrel.

The US stock market futures opened in the green on Monday morning, after dipping in the red for th previous week. Investors will pay close attention to the CPI and PPI inflation numbers scheduled to release this week to gauge Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy action.

The Asian markets posted a sharp recovery on Monday morning, after plunging as much as 11% in the previous week. The Korean KOSPI surged 1.5%, Japan’s Nikkei surged 3.3% and Taiwan's benchmark index surged over 5% on Monday morning.

NIFTY50 chart check

NIFTY50 snapped the winning streak on Sunday, ending below 25,000 psychological benchmark level. However, broader setup remains intact with NIFTY50 defending 200 EMA levels for the third consecutive session.

Besides this, index also witnessed a positive crossover on the daily charts, with 20 EMA crossing 50 EMA from below, suggesting renewed optimism and strength in the index. NIFTY50 has recouped all the losses from the correction started on Aug 3, 2026.

However, after a relentless rally, the RSI of 76 indicates an overbought scenario for the index, suggesting some caution of a pullback or consolidation ahead.

NIFTY50 open interest summary

The short muhurat trading session on Sunday witnessed strong open interest addition on the 25,000 calls, indicating some limitations to the upside for NIFTY50. On the flipside, 24,500 puts held the highest open interest for today’s expiry, indicating a near term support for the NIFTY50 index.

FII and DII activity

The FII and DII activity remained largely muted on the Muhurat trading session on Sunday. However, the foreign investors closed the previous week by adding equities worth 13,749 crore on Friday. On a month to date basis, the FIIs have added equities worth ₹45,959 crore. On the flip side, DIIs have sold equities worth ₹24,896 crore during the same period.

For the derivatives markets, the FIIs’ short position as of 08 November stands at 75.42% as compared to 88% at the start of the November series, indicating the magnitude of short covering that delivered a robust rally in the index.

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