Brent crude jumps 2% to four-month high levels as Middle East tensions escalate

Crude oil prices bounced back to four-month high levels on Thursday after fresh escalations in the Middle East region raised supply disruption fears. The Brent crude oil futures surged to the $112 per barrel mark on Thursday, just shy of hitting four-month high levels of $114 per barrel, last touched in May 2026.

The sharp rally in oil prices on Thursday is primarily driven by reports that the US could strike Iran post mid-term elections. Reports stated that the US and Iran militaries have developed a short, intensive operation, following next month’s elections in the US.

Besides this, the attacks on US ally Saudi Arabia continue to intensify further. The Houthi rebels from Yemen have struck Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah oil field, killing two workers. This comes days after the rebels struck Saudi’a airport.

In the wake of ongoing escalations and a worsening situation in the Middle East, the US has ordered non-governmental employees and families to leave Saudi Arabia.

In addition, Trump’s latest remark on the diplomatic efforts further escalated tensions. President Trump said the US is not negotiating with Iran and something will happen fair soon.

Supply back to normalcy

Despite the volatility in crude oil prices and the intensified situation in the region, the crude oil supply from the Strait of Hormuz has returned to pre-conflict levels, alleviating some fears. Saudi Arabia’s oil exports touched their highest level since March, jumping 7.9% in August.

Nevertheless, the supply disruption fears continue as exports of refined oil products remain constrained. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Thursday said that four vessels involved in illegal oil transfer in the Gulf were simultaneously.

Crude oil prices soar 14% in October, amid renewed escalations in the region. Brent crude oil prices made a low of $70 per barrel in July 2026, plunging more than 37% from the four-year high levels. However, the prices have bounced back 52.8% in the previous three months, bringing back fears of stagflation in major oil-dependent countries.