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Howard Marks, in Mastering the Market Cycle, shows how understanding cycles, psychology and risk helps improve timing and long-term investment decisions.
Most of the time, the market is in a state of fluctuation, swinging between optimism and pessimism, greed and fear.
Most people act as if every good thing will go on forever. But very few things go straight up without correction.
The worst of deals are made in the best of times. That’s when competition is greatest, capital is most available, and caution is often thrown to the wind.
The greatest of bargains are available in the worst of times. But only for those who are willing to act boldly and contrarian.
You can’t predict, but you can prepare. You can’t know the future, but you can understand the present and position yourself accordingly.
The only constant in cycles is that they will continue to occur. Their timing and extent, however, remain unpredictable.
The most important thing is not brilliance or insight, but rather an awareness of where we stand in the cycle.
Markets rise and fall but those who understand the cycle can endure, adapt and outperform. “The key is awareness and thoughtful positioning.”
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