1. Evaluating India's Economic Health Before the Interim Budget Announcement

Evaluating India's Economic Health Before the Interim Budget Announcement

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Upstox

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2 min read • Updated: January 31, 2024, 1:48 PM

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Summary

As India approaches the Union Budget 2024, key economic indicators such as a fluctuating Index of Industrial Production, a robust projected GDP growth of 7.3%, and significant capital expenditure highlight the challenges and opportunities that Finance Minister Niramala Sitharaman will address in the Interim Budget 2024. Tax revenue efficiency and the management of the fiscal deficit, estimated at ₹17.86 lakh crore, remain crucial for India's economic strategy in the coming fiscal year.

Inflation

As we approach the Union Budget 2024, a key economic indicator to monitor is inflation, reflecting changes in the prices of goods and services. With India's retail inflation hitting a 4-month high, it's crucial to understand its impact on the upcoming Interim Budget, as presented by Finance Minister Niramala Sitharaman.

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP)

The Union Budget 2024 is expected to address the ebbs and flows in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP). After peaking at an 11.7% growth rate in October 2023, a noteworthy decline followed. This indicator's trajectory will be a critical aspect of Niramala Sitharaman's Interim Budget 2024 proposals.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Its Role

A focal point of Niramala Sitharaman's Union Budget 2024 will be India's GDP growth. Projected to reach 7.3% in FY24, this robust growth rate will be pivotal in shaping the policies and allocations in the Interim Budget 2024, emphasizing India's economic resilience.

CapEx Outlay

Significant increases in capital expenditure, observed in the December quarter with new projects worth ₹6.1 trillion, will likely influence the fiscal strategy in Niramala Sitharaman's Interim Budget 2024. This 44% year-over-year increase is a key driver for India's economic expansion as outlined in the Union Budget.

Tax Collections and Their Impact

Tax revenues, a cornerstone of the government's financial strategy, will play a significant role in the Union Budget 2024. With over ₹14 lakh crore collected in net direct taxes and a 12% rise in GST collections, these figures will critically inform the fiscal decisions in the upcoming Interim Budget.

Fiscal Deficit Considerations

The Union Budget 2024, presented by Niramala Sitharaman, will need to address the fiscal deficit, currently estimated at ₹17.86 lakh crore for FY23-24. How the government plans to manage this deficit, standing at 50.7% of the estimate as of November 2023, will be a key component of the Interim Budget 2024.